RHEA’s experts have been using concurrent design for nearly two decades to accelerate the early phases of complex engineering projects such as space programmes, defence systems, factory design and luxury yachts.
In this blog series, they share their insights into how you can ensure concurrent design sessions are rigorous and the outcomes are high quality.
By Gwendolyn Kolfschoten, Concurrent Design Expert
11. Avoiding bias in decision-making
A final challenge that we face when supporting rigour and quality in concurrent design is how to maximize the quality of decisions being made when uncertainty is high. In such instances, we need to guard against different sources of bias while trying to focus on fact-based decisions.
The origins of bias in decision-making
Bias is a recognized phenomenon in the psychology of decision-making. It stems from our need to make split-second decisions.
The mechanism by which we make decisions fast and based on previous information helps us to navigate too many daily decisions, but it becomes a burden when we need to make complex decisions about innovative solutions and when levels of uncertainty are high. In such cases, we want to make decisions consciously and deliberately, based on information and reasoning. However, it is often challenging to ‘switch off’ our decision-making autopilot.
Why bias occurs
Bias has many forms, ranging from recognizing situations that resemble something we experienced before (though it may not necessarily be the same), to being impressed by authority (even though they may not be an authority on this aspect) or agreeing with someone we simply like (who may not necessarily be knowledgeable).
Bias is subconscious and when we are not aware and vigilant, we easily fall into its trap.
Avoiding bias
In general, the best way to avoid bias is to make the decision more explicit, and actively seek to create a supporting rationale for the decision. This means writing down the options, listing advantages and disadvantages, and setting clear criteria for the decision in which you objectively evaluate each alternative, being as fact based and data driven as possible.
Types of bias and tips to navigate them
Here are some ways bias can occur, and how you can guard it during the decision-making process:
- Avoid leading questions. Instead of “Don’t you think that that is too expensive?” ask “Please elaborate on the cost in relation to the performance”.
- Beware of confirmation bias. Once an option is named as preferable, people will be biased to focus on arguments in favour of that option. To avoid this, do an overview of all options, pros and cons. This helps the group to consider alternatives.
- Beware of anchoring bias. The option that is analyzed or presented first is often seen as the most preferable option by default. Try to start by presenting the overview of alternatives before you zoom in on one of the options.
- Beware of the ‘halo’ effect or authority bias. If the presenter of a specific option is of higher status, or more likable, this may positively affect the evaluation of that option, irrespective of its quality. Detach the options from the people who brought them to the table by giving an overview.
- Beware of ‘in group’ favouritism. In this case, the arguments of people in your department or from the same organization are considered and trusted more than those of people outside those circles. This requires either team building or ensuring arguments are detached from people, for instance by listing them.
- Beware of ‘sunk costs’. When the team or the expert has already invested effort and/or research in something, they may try to hold on to it, despite evidence to the contrary.
- Beware of the ‘invented here’ effect. When people develop solutions themselves, or have had a role in them, they tend to prefer them over the ones invented by others.
Find out more
In this series of blog posts on concurrent design, we present techniques to improve rigour and quality. These offer a toolbox for concurrent design team leads to support their teams effectively in improving and testing the design. We cover aspects such as how to handle validation when working with rough estimates, how to capture the wisdom of the whole team of experts, and how to keep the team on track and motivated.
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Catch up with our previous blog series on 10 Success Factors for Collaborative Design.
